THE FACTS
By now, you have almost certainly heard that someone leaked a draft Majority Opinion from the Supreme Court that would effectively overturn Roe vs. Wade and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey and transfer the question of abortion policy to each individual state.
Further, you have likely heard that Chief Justice John Roberts has confirmed the authenticity of that draft document and has instigated an investigation regarding how the document was leaked to the press.
The final fact to present is that the reaction from some pro-abortion Americans has ranged from rage to absolutely unhinged lunacy.
WHAT DID NOT HAPPEN
This is not a final decision.
Drafts are argumentative documents, hoping to persuade other Justices. While there are five votes seemingly ready to return the question of abortion to the States, John Roberts still has time to build a different, more modest coalition of votes.
Abortion isn’t banned.
Even if this draft becomes the final ruling, abortion is not banned in the United States. That fact seems to escape pro-abortion (and some pro-life) advocates. Roe restricted States from regulating abortion in the first two trimesters of pregnancy. Overturning Roe means only that each State can make their own abortion laws.
THE LEAK
I hesitate to speculate on the leaker. Theories abound today:
The Leftist Leaker Theory - Some argue that an activist Clerk or Court administrator on the Left leaked it to create pressure on the Justices to preserve Roe. The theory has logical merit but no material evidence. Certainly, all the dark forces in favor of abortion will place pressure on the Justices. It’s not hyperbole that this leak puts their lives in danger. The motive is there, but again, I struggle to believe something without tangible evidence.
The Rightist Leaker Theory - Some argue that someone with an interest in seeing Roe overturned leaked the document to lock in those five votes — making it harder for anyone to change his or her mind.
CONSEQUENCES OF THE LEAK
We are a people that have largely lost trust in our shared institutions. Distrust in government, media, religion, entertainment, and the education system are at historic highs. Very few institutions feel truly shared and trusted by the majority of Americans.
The Supreme Court still enjoys broad deference and trust as a fair arbiter. We desperately need institutions that the majority of Americans trust. That fact is why this leak is so egregious. The guilty party(ies) need to found and punished to the fullest extent of the law.
Leaks like this erode trust in an era when the culture is hanging precariously over the edge of unrest.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
LEGAL CONSEQUENCES
States like California and Maryland have already moved to become “abortion tourism” states — implementing programs to transport and fund women in abortion-restriction States to their states for abortions. Pro-abortion organizations will follow suit.
If Roe and Casey really are overturned, Maybe half of the US States will ban or nearly ban abortion outright. Other states will legalize, fund, and perform abortion for any reason at any time. Some others will fall in between.
For pro-life advocates who want to see abortion abolished like slavery was abolished, there is still a long way there.
HUMAN CONSEQUENCES
Lives will be saved. If this ruling becomes official, some untold thousands of children, made in the image of God, will come into the world.
Those little lives, their mothers, and their fathers, will sometimes need help. If you, like me, want to see abortion end, prepare for the success of your movement by donating time and money to your local crisis pregnancy center.
Those centers provide training for parents.
Those centers often provide formula and diapers as well.
If we want to see more children live instead of be killed in the womb, let’s be ready to support them however we can.
POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES
A couple folks reached out to me today to ask if this would energize Leftist voters and imperil the likelihood of more conservative representatives winning Congress and the Senate in November.
In short, I don’t think so. If you do the math using Cook Political Report’s ratings and formulas, even a 10% jolt in Leftwing voter enthusiasm won’t be enough to keep the House. The Senate could stay 50-50 in that scenario, however.
Remember a few items on this:
1. Emotions are fickle. There will be rage for a couple months, but to maintain that rage for six months is unlikely. Remember that Republicans thought the Obamacare ruling in June of 2012 would be enough to drive more turnout for Mitt Romney. It helped some, but not enough. I suspect the same is true here.
2. The underlying reality is the same. Data demonstrate that the people who are going to vote in November are most concerned with inflation, crime, and the state of the economy. As summer drags on, those issues are going to likely remain troublesome. Thus, the animating issues for the majority of the electorate militate against the Left right now.
3. Elections in the US are matters of turnout. We have low-turnout elections. Historically, the party out of power is just more motivated to show up. So, they win. This ruling will adjust that turnout in the Left’s favor, but the data does not suggest it will matter enough.
SPIRITUAL CONSEQUENCES
Ultimately, abortion is a Biblical, spiritual issue — not a political one. The mass killing of the unborn for 50 years is one of our worst national sins. I have often said that abortion is demonic. I believe that to my core. Just like slavery before it, abortion is a blight on this land. It’s an unequivocal moral good to have fewer abortions.
While I pray the church is ready to serve more babies in their families, I am also reminded that we still have work to do to protect life from womb until natural death.
Final call: pray for the Justices. Pray for their safety. Pray for your countrymen. Pray for peace.
